Darkness Before the Dawn

To envision a confident and productive future while we are still mired in the degradation of a decaying society is difficult.  Yet, even as the present order fails we must prepare the foundations for a future we can respect and believe in.

An American renewal is only possible if we rise above our differences and step forward with patience, determination, and inquiring minds.

I look forward to a future in which Americans carry themselves with dignity and treat one another with respectful consideration.  We are learning that problem-solving is impossible without collaboration, and that economic decision-making must be realistic and responsible.

Are we surprised?

Compassion and realism are both essential attitudes. But, idealistic motives for building a just society are subject to the harsh realities of current resources and the balance sheet.

It appears a crisis is unavoidable before we can advance constructively.  We live in a complex society.  Something has to awaken us to the necessities of forward thinking and moral responsibility.

The financial world is now poised to trigger the next shock.  Already massively indebted and near bankruptcy, the government continues to spend like there is no tomorrow.

The Congress has been officially warned that Social Security will soon be unable to meet promised payments.

The ability of the nation to attend to social needs will falter, not because of mean-spirited antipathy, but because bankruptcy is an unyielding taskmaster.  Entitlements will remain in name only, gutted by the devaluation of the dollar.  We will be starting from scratch.

At this writing the crisis has yet to fully precipitate.  Those who understand the untenable condition of our credit-based monetary system, and have their eyes open, are telling us the financial world cannot avoid massive restructuring.

We cannot know if this will be managed in an orderly manner or will spiral out of control.  Either way the dollar has to be devalued significantly.

Unfortunately, this will only be the beginning.  The consequences of fiscal irresponsibility will introduce a long crisis.  A sobering array of intensifying pressures and additional crises are emerging into view.

There will be a period of time when the surprises can only keep coming.

It is for this reason that we must stand our ground locally, building strong communities and dependable relationships – despite our differences.  Constructive action must replace blaming and prejudice.

And, we must begin now.  The future is desperate for clear thinking and positive energy.

We must be especially wary of silver-tongued ideologues who promise to fix everything for us.

I understand the anger.  It is real and it is valid.  But the only effective solutions will require that we all step up to the task.  Freedom depends on responsibility – personal responsibility.

The old order is self-destructing, and the seeds of destruction have been sown for a long time.

The towering mountains of paper wealth accumulated by the self-styled masters of the universe will evaporate before our eyes and theirs, a direct consequence of their own greed, their myopic fascination with money, and their lack of foresight.

There is no way to sugarcoat the pain this will cause for everyone else.

But, let’s be clear: We need not endanger our families and friends with acts of rebellion.  That will simply not be necessary.

We have work to do that calls for our full attention.   Our job is to get serious about rethinking the future, to rebuild and re-unite and not to wait.

The impending financial upheaval will set the stage for what follows.  We must make this a time for listening and learning and developing new skills.

Trust-building, dependability, and constructive action are the order of the day.  Working out social and political differences will come later.

I will not offer specific prescriptions.  An American future must be reconstructed in this time of crisis by the American people themselves — as we are brought finally to our senses.

I will outline principles, strategic thinking, and organizing tools that can make constructive action possible.  Only then can we begin taking control of our lives as a free and responsible people.

Even in a long crisis.

Tom

Dear Readers, please watch for the next post on or about September 14.

A project description can be found at the top of this page, (www.freedomstruth.net), as well as a draft introduction to the coming book and sample chapters, including: American Crucible, The Power of Diversity, and The Will to Freedom.  I depend on your feedback.

Walking the Talk

Big corporations sometimes show little regard for local communities.  Geared for profit-making, not citizenship or moral responsibility, giant business organizations are resistant to compromise.  They are neither human nor humane.

Living in an economy dominated by corporate culture, we find ourselves perceived as economic units, “consumers” pressed into service by a materialist mindset.

It should not be surprising to find ourselves alienated from mass society, isolated from one another, and struggling to find meaning in life.  The interconnected relationships that civil society depends on have evaporated.

Americans need not submit to such a destiny.  Ours is a nation of people, not machines.  We are prepared to work, but not as tools.  We are social beings, but independent in mind and spirit.

In reality independence is relative, but always an attitude and a choice.  The independence that leads to self-sufficiency could actually become a matter of life or death.  It can mean food security or financial stability or being a good parent.

The meaning of independence takes on new dimensions when crises strike.  But, there is much more to this than survival.

It is in communities and in the quality of active human relationships that we form the matrix of a free society.  Freedom is realized in serving a principled purpose, and in the vitality of lives that are engaged, responsible, and in motion.

Constructive relationships with other people allow ideas to be shared.  Our ability to solve problems is enhanced.  In trustworthy relationships, self-sufficiency gains strength and dependability.

Are we willing to take this on?

We might not want to put up with community.  It’s hard work.  Some try to avoid it all together.  But, it is impossible to ignore it in a civilized society – unless we take snowshoes, an axe and a rifle, and walk into the wilderness.

I know how attractive solitude can be.  But, I also know it would limit my opportunities to grow as an individual, as well as the honor of dedication to the country I love.

Historically, the basic building blocks of the American Republic have been communities. There was a time when the bonds that held everything together were the personal relationships that made communities work.

Communities are formed by the inspiration and determination of individuals and families, interwoven into mutually supportive networks, and networks of networks.

It will not be easy to regain what came to us more naturally in the past.  Yet, our future depends on loyalty to the “American Idea”, a vision that embraces unity, diversity, and trustworthiness.

Americans are accustomed to contentious politics and unconstrained partisanship.  There will always be value in the clash of differing opinions.  However, we have entered a period of instability and potential danger.  This is the time to rise above our differences to repair and protect the interwoven fabric of the Republic.

We face unprecedented complexity, deteriorating institutions, and a growing scarcity of resources.  Things will not work the way we expect they should, and there will be no one to resolve the problems except ourselves.

If we are to rebuild a society in which the foolishness of the past is not repeated, we must think constructively about the principles and human qualities that are needed.

Generosity and good will are essential human virtues, but they are only the beginning.

Finding solutions to community problems requires consultation, collaboration, foresight and creative imagination – all of which call for a maximum diversity of practical skills, knowledge, and perspective.

This might sound idealistic.  In fact, it is the only way to build communities and, I believe, to restore a broken society.

Learning how to do it will be difficult and often frustrating.  But those with steadfast patience and vision – who can see the end in the beginning – will carry though and prevail.

Resolving differences of opinion or non-core values is not necessary for this to work, and may often be impossible.

While giving one another space to have genuine differences can be uncomfortable and aggravating, holding ourselves apart over disagreements while hurling insults can only reap destruction.

Rising above our differences can be a formidable challenge, but there is no other way.

Tom

Dear readers:  Please look for the next post on or about March 9.

From Darkness to Light

Without neighbors we can depend on, how will we find safety for our families and the strength to build the future?  Tell me, please, in what place other than our local communities do we have the opportunity amid deepening turbulence to forge dependable relationships, heal wounds, and influence our destiny?

I have never said it will be easy.  Responsibility never is.  We face an extraordinary turning point, an oncoming sequence of crises that will challenge each of us to rise to a new level.

Do we imagine that a shining superhero will rescue us from chaos?  Or will we, as I asked in the last post, pick ourselves up, reach out to our neighbors, and do what needs to be done?

This is an uncompromising question.  Not to answer it, or to defer commitment, is in fact to answer it.  Failure to rise to necessity is to accept defeat.

Whatever ones’ personality, political philosophy or religious belief, we have an unavoidable choice to make.  Either we retreat into ourselves, accepting what is given as beyond our control, or we step forward to engage hardship and purpose with constructive intent.

This is a very personal choice, but at a time of existential crisis for America it takes on great significance – for ourselves, for the nation and for the world.

The United States has served as a model for governance and an engine of creative vitality that is unparalleled in human history.  The American idea has been a beacon of hope for people everywhere.  There has never been anything else like it.

And, the world is watching.

To hesitate would be to act as victims rather than as Americans.  It would be to choose loss over promise, helplessness over responsibility.

We may be temporarily intimidated by difficult circumstances.  But we must never give in, and never lose sight of the dawn of a new day that even now lights the horizon.

Living with purpose gives us courage and inspiration.  Without the courage to begin anew, we will join the slide into turmoil.

Strengthening our communities will not isolate us from uncertainty.  It will provide only limited protection as an island of safety.  What it can do, however, and will do if we are determined, is to open the door to genuine possibilities — dependable neighbors, mutual assistance, food security, and economic renewal on a human scale.

It positions us to best keep our balance, mentally and spiritually.  And, it keeps the potential for an American future alive.

Working with people is probably the most challenging part of life.  Choosing to work together will require perseverance and forbearance – a readiness to exercise tolerance, patience, self-control.  Communicating effectively will become a necessity.

There will always be difficult people to test us.

Our job is not to be heroes or caretakers or managers, although these roles may call on us at times.  Our job is to win over hearts and minds to the cause of reason, safety, mutual respect.

Only then will it be possible for fear to give way to sincere listening, anxiety to understanding.

No one is asking that we change our views.  Our lessons, (and those we need to teach), are those of democracy: Patience, problem-solving, teamwork and collaboration.

Progress will come one step at a time and will often seem painfully slow.

Making a commitment to stay positive requires considerable resolve.  But, focusing on productive purpose and building dependable relationships can make a very big difference.

The negativity that imposes itself on us may appear powerful, but it can only exist in the absence of constructive action, and only has the energy we allow it.

When we set out on a practical path and offer encouragement to others with a friendly spirit, we become as a light that pushes back the darkness.

If we meet with overwhelming negativity, it may be wise to take our energy elsewhere.  But, we must never allow our vision to dim or our compassion to be compromised.

Darkness can always be countered with light.  Darkness is the absence of light and has no substance of its own.

The light of a small candle defies even the darkest night.

Tom

Please look for the next post on or about February 9:  Finding courage in crisis.

A note to new readers:  Blog entries adapted from the forthcoming book are posted on alternating Fridays on both this, the main blog site and a Facebook page.  To receive alerts by email you may click “Follow” on the right side of your screen.

In the Crucible of Crisis

The extraordinary challenges confronting the American people mark a turning point and an unambiguous test of America’s place in history.

For more than two hundred years the United States has stood before the world as a beacon of hope, a source of creative imagination and ingenuity, and as a singular model of political freedom, social diversity, and economic vitality.

In the cauldron of crisis it is easy to forget the unparalleled historic meaning of the United States, and the role it has played and will continue to play in the progress of an ever-advancing civilization.

Yet, our confidence in the future is shaken by abandoned responsibility and collapsing institutions.  Our economic well-being and social coherence as a nation have been weakened, and the generosity of spirit for which Americans have long been known has faded.

As we begin a new year, I am stepping away from recent topics to revisit the central theme of this blog and forthcoming book.

Most of my posts are adapted from a working manuscript.  They usually appear on alternating Fridays here at http://www.freedomstruth.net – and at facebook.com/freedomstruth.  You will find a project description on this page, an introduction to the book, and drafts of several chapters.

My question is this:  Is there a diverse and loyal core of American citizens who possess the will and the vision to refine our shared identity as a nation at this great turning point?

The turning point I speak of is not political.  It is social and economic, defined by crises and brought on by lack of foresight and the abandonment of moral responsibility over many years.

I believe this is a critical moment; a time to consider our identity as a people.

Are we prepared to stand firm amidst chaotic disruptions and rise above our differences to seek a common understanding and vision – an “American idea”?

My message is brief.  It will be short on analytical detail and will avoid blame.  There is more than enough blame to go around and we all know about it.

Rather, it will focus on the essentials of mind and attitude, of moral character, and of our relationships with one another that will be required to go forward – to turn despair into courage and failure into honor and self-respect.

The book will acknowledge certain past mistakes and failures of responsibility. We will briefly consider the manner in which we have gradually abandoned control over our lives, making ourselves vulnerable to the present circumstances.

However, it will do so not to fix blame, but for the purpose of understanding the steps required to build a stable future we can all accept and believe in.

We all yearn for a less partisan and more civil national discourse. Let us accept that diverse views are needed, however divergent they may be, if we are to identify effective solutions.  Practical problem-solving best occurs with input from varied perspectives.

In the present dangerously fragile context, priority must go to ensuring the safety and well-being of our families and communities.  This will depend on trustworthiness and teamwork despite our differences.

There can be no freedom without trust.  And, we cannot begin to build trust or address the larger issues in our future without first securing stable local forums in which to dialog, strategize and collaborate.

Is this really possible?  Yes, but only with great patience, a commitment to justice, and an effort to envision the end in the beginning.

The United States has gained its vitality from our diversity and the creative engagement found in the clash of differing opinions.

I will not ask you to alter your views, but to listen, understand, and debate.  Our differences must not be permitted to subvert the unity of purpose that defines us as a nation.

At a time of extraordinary existential threat we are confronted with a stark choice.

Will we seek the ideal made possible by the United States Constitution?  Will we defend and protect two hundred years of commitment, hard work, and sacrifice by generations of Americans who have given their lives to this unprecedented vision?

Or, will we give way to the emotions of uncompromising partisanship – and allow a great trust to pass away?

Tom

Dear readers, you can support this project by suggesting that your friends and associates take a look.  Constructive feedback is much appreciated.  Please expect the next post on or about January 12.

From Crisis to Crisis

The twentieth-century brought an immense number of marvelous advances to the world – scientific, intellectual, cultural.  Yet it was a century of appalling violence, the most destructive in human history.  An estimated 167 million to 188 million people died at the hands of their brothers.

The century that produced communism, fascism, and nationalism also saw the invention of highly efficient weaponry and a willingness to direct it against civilian populations on a massive scale.

Do we understand that terrible things could happen on American soil – tragedies far worse than anything we have experienced since the Civil War?  At this historic turning point we can least afford a repetition of the world’s destructive past.  And how easily that could happen!

Only a strong America, just and wise and levelheaded, can lead a disrupted world back to stability and peace.

In his 2006 book, “The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West”, the historian Niall Ferguson, who I have introduced to you previously, wrote that “the hundred years after 1900 were without question the bloodiest century in modern history, far more violent in relative as well as absolute terms than any previous era…. There was not a single year before, between or after the world wars that did not see large-scale violence in one part of the world or another.”

I consider Niall Ferguson’s analysis to be of value because he departs from the typical explanations that blame weaponry and fascist governments, as significant as these were, and instead identifies ethnic conflict, economic volatility, and declining empires as the true causes.

In short, he reminds us of our human vulnerability to fear, emotional insecurity, and tribalism.

The convergence of multiple crises I am writing about here involves elements of all these things, but also a range of newly emerging concerns that most of us have not seen coming.

These include a fragile and globally interdependent banking system, depleted natural resources, environmental degradation, and runaway technologies that are rapidly outpacing the maturity of human moral competence.

In every case, regardless of the particular nature of approaching crises, the challenges we face as individuals and families come into focus in the form of immediate local threats.

And, as Dr. Ferguson points out, it is the overreaction of people under pressure that leads to the most terrible violence.

Long-time readers know my views.  In the extremes of social and economic crises, it is my belief that local communities are the only place where we have the capability and reasonable hope of organizing our lives in a civilized manner.

The difference between a violent past and a civilized future will depend entirely on the manner in which we address problems with our neighbors and manage our local affairs.  To be plainspoken, the distinction between past and future will be determined by personal attitudes and dependable relationships.

Local communities are the only context in which we have the capacity to respond constructively to the social and economic degradation taking place around us.

Community provides us with the means to build trust with friends and neighbors, and to take responsibility for meeting needs.

Here it is that the real needs of real lives can be identified and addressed.

And, it is in the process of problem-solving and working shoulder-to-shoulder that we can begin to know, understand, and influence one another.  The lessons of civility and cooperation to be learned here will be critical to our future as a nation.

We must be realistic.  Many people are still dominated by their own crippling prejudices.  This is unlikely to change until we are forced to address the essential needs we all face together under crisis conditions. 

Patience and determination will make many things possible, and necessity will sharpen the mind.

Distrust and alienation are diminished as we identify common concerns and work together in service to a common purpose.

And what is that common purpose?

Ultimately, in my view, it is the survival of a constitutional republic and the Constitution of the United States, which together have allowed gradual progress toward unity and inclusive fairness for more than 200 years

Tom 

Watch for the next post on or about December 1.

A note to new readers:  A project description, an introduction to my forthcoming book, and several working drafts of early chapters are posted on this page (see above).  Please see especially, “American Crucible”.

 

Food and Water: The Bottom Line

It is easy in a crisis to feel overwhelmed or angry.  Seeking assistance from neighbors might feel difficult or impossible.  Yet, it may be necessary to cooperate, to organize mutual assistance simply to meet essential needs.

The safety of our families, the security of our local communities, and even the future of the nation could depend on it.

Our disagreements pale in the face of an unprecedented convergence of multiple crises.  If we believe in the unique value of the United States of America as a model for the future of the humanity, we need to think about our priorities.

Some disagreements may need to be deferred to honor central and overriding agreement.

Americans are capable of recognizing shared goals and collaborating to meet shared needs – if this is recognized as a necessity.  Nothing needs to shake our determination to prevail.

The world is changing dramatically every day.  Tensions rise when the economy deteriorates or resources are scarce.  We live in a digitally interconnected world in which financial stress is never isolated and can suddenly spread and metastasize into instability.

But, we do not need to wait for a sudden crisis to know that something is happening.  It is no secret to anyone who watches supermarket prices.  The global population is growing exponentially.  We are gaining approximately 214,000 new mouths to feed every day.

Do we understand that the price of food is determined primarily by global commodity markets?

Natural resources are becoming extremely expensive to produce, whether through agriculture or to extract from the earth.  As falling water tables, changing weather patterns, and the loss of top soil bring pressure to bear on agriculture, the cost of food will continue to rise unevenly.

The natural aquifers that provide water for some of the most productive farming regions in the world, including the United States, are collapsing at an accelerating rate – as they are over-pumped and water is diverted to cities.

Available farmland is shrinking rapidly in the breadbasket areas of the United States, India, and China, which feed hundreds of millions of people.

Some scientists suggest that advancing technologies will increase crop yields.  But, there is evidence that biological “glass ceilings” may exist, above which photosynthesis will not allow increased productivity.

Given the rapid loss of farmland, we have little time to wait for research.

It has become apparent that a worldwide food crisis can only be avoided by producing record harvests every year – year after year.  We all know this is impossible. The weather has never allowed for that.

For Americans, the availability of food at any price could also be of concern.  A banking crisis or other major disruption of North American supply chains would empty the stores. American supermarkets only maintain three-day warehouse inventories.

Logic and wisdom should draw our attention to food security.  This is a necessity that requires self-sufficiency, and it would benefit immensely from cooperation with our neighbors.

We cannot wait to reach a state of desperation before we prepare.  We can all learn how to grow and preserve food. This requires that we arrange for access to appropriate land and find knowledgeable neighbors to work with.

Growing food can be a rewarding endeavor.  It can generate economic activity, and can lend itself readily to community cooperation. But, early planning and preparation are essential.

Safe drinking water is another matter.  The majority of municipal water systems in the United States are ancient and tottering.  Furthermore, polluted ground water can render local wells toxic.  This also demands knowledge, planning and preparation.

Having community-members with electrical, plumbing, farming, and other skills is important for all kinds of reasons.  This is why I continue to remind readers of the importance of finding a diversity of knowledge, experience, and skills for our local communities.

There are also skills we each need to learn – how to build trust, manage conflict, and engage in effective small group decision-making.

We are Americans.  We can do this.

When the going gets tough, differences in religion, politics, or skin color are not going to go away, but they need to take a back seat.

Tom

A note to regular readers: The drafts of several chapters posted on this page (see above) are currently being re-written and expanded.  I depend on your feedback.

Please watch for the next post on or about November 17.

Why the Bankers Are Trapped

Few seem to grasp that we have arrived at an historic turning point: a nation and a world confronted with profound structural change.  The hope to recover the past will not be helpful. We must pick ourselves up, hit the reset button, and respond to a rapidly changing reality.

I cannot accept assumptions about political policies or intentions without asking practical questions. I want to understand a complex transition that is having an immense impact on us all.

There are many aspects to the changes we are experiencing, some with immediate implications, others longer-term.  To seek solutions we must recognize structural change.

I have given attention to the continuing financial crisis in recent posts because I believe that is where the closest danger lies.

So, I begin here with a financial question with structural implications: Why is the Federal Reserve unable to return the economy to some semblance of fairness and order? Or, to put it another way: Why have our financial liabilities not been corrected since the crisis in 2008?

The short answer is that they want to believe they are dealing with a cyclical crisis rather than a structural crisis.  Again, why?

Because the truth represents an unbearable existential threat.

Here we find a powerful example of the problems presented by structural change.

The economy has shifted into a long-term deflationary trend, which presents banks and governments with an impossible situation.

I refer you again to James Rickards’ best-selling book, “The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System”.  A monetary economist and former banker, Rickards has been advising the Pentagon and CIA concerning financial warfare and terrorism.

Using simple math, Rickards’ explains how, “in effect, the impact of declining prices [deflation] more than offsets declining nominal growth [GDP] and therefore produces real growth.”

Most of us would think this is a good thing.

He writes: “Despite possible real growth, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve fear deflation more than any other economic outcome. Deflation means a persistent decline in price levels for goods and services. Lower prices allow for a higher living standard even when wages are constant, because consumer goods cost less. This would seem to be a desirable outcome, based on advances in technology and productivity that result in certain products dropping in price over time….”

Why is the Federal Reserve so fearful of deflation that it resorts to extreme measures to oppose it? Rickards gives us four reasons.

First, deflation has a severe impact on government debt: “U.S. debt is at a point where no feasible combination of real growth and taxes will finance repayment…. But if the Fed can cause inflation…, the debt will be manageable because it will be repaid in less valuable nominal dollars. In deflation, the opposite occurs, and the real value of the debt increases….”

Second, deflation impacts the debt-to-GDP ratio, causing foreign creditors to lose confidence in the dollar and demand higher interest rates. This is an urgent problem because the debt is continually increasing. Budget deficits require new financing, and interest payments are already being financed with new debt.

Third, deflation is a major problem for banks. As Rickards’ puts it, “deflation increases money’s real value and therefore increases the real value of lenders’ claims on debtors…. But as deflation progresses, the real weight of the debt becomes too great, and debtor defaults surge.”

The fourth problem with deflation is about taxes. When a worker receives a raise, the additional income is subject to taxes. But, if the cost of living drops by the same amount, the worker in effect receives the same raise and the government cannot tax it.

“In summary,” writes Rickards, “the Federal Reserve prefers inflation because it erases government debt, reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio, props up banks, and can be taxed.”

“Deflation may help consumers and workers,” he says, “but it hurts the Treasury and the banks…. The consequence of these deflationary dynamics is that the government must have inflation, and the Fed must cause it. The dynamics amount to a historic collision between the natural forces of deflation and the government’s need for inflation.”

Such are the challenges of structural change.

Tom

Note to readers: You can support this blog and the book project by suggesting that your friends and associates take a look.  And, watch for the next post on or about November 3.

When Money Dies

Americans experienced a major financial crisis in 2007-8.  Some would argue that it began far earlier, and clearly it is ongoing today.  We may be more aware of this crisis than others because it confronts us daily.  In preparing for what is to come, we would do well to listen to those who saw it coming and who continue to warn of its’ inevitable consequences.

Beyond all the foolishness and greed running rampant in the financial world, one great threat hangs over our future more than any other: The greatest expansion of debt the world has ever seen.  This is in large part due to non-stop deficit spending by governments.  Corporate borrowing has recently exploded similarly.

However, we need to understand that this has been made possible by a credit-based monetary system.  Easy access to credit, which is money created out of thin air, has led to the belief that credit is wealth.  This fantasy has infected society from top to bottom.

When a credit-based monetary system functions the way central bankers wish, the money supply should expand only slightly faster than economic growth.  Enough additional money must be created to cover the growing cost of servicing the expanding debt.

But, since 2008 the central bank (which we call the Federal Reserve) has expanded the monetary base almost four-fold while the economy has grown very little.

They call this “money”, but it is mostly debt.

The arrangement is extremely profitable for banks and the wealthy elite.  It allows for all kinds of mischievousness.  And, it depends on inflation, which is a long-term problem for the rest of us.  If it sounds to you like a Ponzi scheme, you are not alone.

In managing the money supply to avoid the growing threat of another banking crisis, the Federal Reserve has facilitated repetitive cycles of booms and busts, each more severe than the last.  This has perpetuated major social and economic distortions and dislocations.  It has stifled any possibility of restoring normalcy to the lives of ordinary Americans.

The economy has not been permitted to return to a normal and balanced condition.  Nothing has been fixed.  Extremely low interest rates have encouraged rapid growth of corporate and government debt, so the situation has been steadily worsening.

At such extreme levels, there are only two paths forward: default or devaluation.

Debt must default and be liquidated before economic productivity can recover.  But, the immediate pain of bankruptcy is too great for the bankers and policy-makers to bear. Consequently, they are struggling to gradually devalue the currency in relation to the cost of goods and services.

The government hopes desperately to meet the nominal cost of Social Security, Medicare, and other long-term budgetary obligations without defaulting.  This means the value of the dollar must fall significantly.

By altering the method of measuring price inflation, rising prices have been masked and social security payments held to a minimum.  Only those who live in the real world know the truth.

The devaluation of currencies is taking place around the world as budget deficits grow. Central banks attempt to minimize the interest costs of huge debt loads, while at the same time trying to avoid the failure of banking institutions that depend on interest rates.

Monetary economist and former banker, James Rickards, has written that “financial crises have supplanted kinetic warfare at the center of complex system dynamics. Financial crises in 1998 and 2008… are warnings – tremors ahead of a misfortune beyond imagining.” (“The Road to Ruin”, 2016, p.204)

The consequences of all this are profound and unpredictable.  We face a deepening crisis that will exaggerate all others, severely limiting the capacity of businesses to grow and create jobs, undermining our standard of living, and making it impossible to address pressing needs without worsening monetary instability.

The dependability of a productive, self-sustaining economy has been sacrificed to the tyranny of selfish interests.

Strangely, however, the wealthy elite have behaved like parasites that destroy their host.  They have wrecked the healthy economy upon which their profits depend.  And they have exposed themselves, as well as the rest of us, to the evaporating value of credit-based money.

Tom

Please look for the next post on or about October 6.  We will take a look at the problem of complexity, and the realities of financial markets and other systems that have vastly exceeded the human capacity to fully understand or control.

Finding Our Balance in the Storm

We live in a world of unprecedented complexity.  Add to this a sense of moral responsibility, and life can be imposing!  The conditions we will face in a serious social and economic crisis will create unexpected challenges.  It will be easy to stumble and fall

So, let’s think about how we can respond to extreme conditions with courage and fortitude.  How can we meet adversity in a way that can actually serve as a springboard for constructive action and community-building?

All of us sometimes feel inadequate.  Courage fails us.  It can be difficult to find our footing and focus our energy productively, especially when we are confused or surprised.  And, it can sometimes feel impossible to be supportive of others, many of whom we seem to have little in common with.

Preparing ourselves will be important as we navigate through one of history’s great turning points.  Our ability to function responsibly under difficult circumstances will be challenged again and again.

I believe we have entered a period of upheaval that will be unparalleled in character and global in its dimensions.  I will explain in my forthcoming book why we can expect to experience “a confluence of crises” in the coming years, an extraordinary convergence of inevitable and seemingly unrelated crises.

It is imperative that we meet our tests with dignity, and above all not to give in to fear.  Democracy is by nature unpredictable, and it will be severely tested in the coming years.  Our future will depend on steadfast patience and forbearance if we are to preserve the open discourse and cooperation that liberty requires.

The American Republic is and always was founded on core human values and a positive, constructive attitude.  We cannot stand by and watch our future descend into chaos.

Those who are alive today have been chosen by history to bring America through this critical passage in time.  Preserving the essential qualities of the American Idea will be our great responsibility as we transit the upheavals of a great storm.

We must keep our balance, keep our hearts and minds focused on our ultimate purpose and not allow ourselves to be dragged down by rancor and bitterness.

We will prevail if the means we employ are harmonious with the ends that we seek.

I offer you symbolic imagery below for our place in history – a metaphor for freedom’s truth.  What follows are the final lines of a eulogy I delivered for my father at his memorial service, and a testimony to what I learned from him.  Please think about it:

“He gave me one truly great thing above all else…. And, this he did by teaching me the ways of sailing boats.  He taught me to fly on the wind.  He taught me to sail, to ride high on the blustery gale!

“Without fear we ventured out on the running tide, suspended between liquid and ether, to know the snap of the rigging, the sting of salt spray, and the unyielding rush of a steady keel straining against the wild.  Together we embraced the untamed and raced across the sky.  He was my Dad.”

Throughout life we are subject to the vagaries of a capricious human world, just as we can be subject to the vicissitudes of the wind and sea.  Yet, core principles and steadfast standards remain firmly in place in both worlds if we have the eyes to see.

Understanding the requirements of this truth, we can then spread our wings and learn to fly.

As with a sailing vessel at sea, our identity as human beings can only be realized in action.  It is through action alone that we free ourselves to discover the world we are given, learning as the sailor learns – to engage a fluid and often unpredictable reality with wisdom and flexibility.

Failing this, we will beat ourselves against an implacable and merciless resistance.  An unwillingness to learn will expose us to the storms of life in a rudderless ship and with our rigging in disarray.

Tom

Please look for the next post on or about August 25.

A note to new readers:  Blog entries adapted from the forthcoming book are posted on most Fridays here and on the Facebook page.  A project description, an introduction to the book (in draft), and several chapter drafts are available on this page.  Reader engagement on the FB page is substantial.  To receive alerts by email you may click “Follow”.

America at a Tipping Point

To speak of rebuilding the foundations of the American Republic is certainly not to suggest deficiencies in the Constitution.  On the contrary, the founders created a structural bulwark for stability that must be defended vigorously.

The foundation that concerns us today is built with the integrity the Constitution requires of us: The responsibility, trustworthiness, and cooperation that transcends differences among citizens.

A reader commented that, “America is at a tipping point because every tenet [and] moral fiber of this nation has been diminished, so that no one is held accountable.  [There is] no moral compass because the foundations are removed.”

We do not have to agree on the details to recognize the truth in this view.  And, we cannot wait for somebody else to fix it.  It is time to stop complaining and join with those around us to secure the safety and well-being of our local communities.

Changing our attitude about this does not mean changing our opinions or compromising our principles.  Not at all!  To address people with dignity and kindliness will win their respect and loyalty.  Harsh and derogatory words will estrange and alienate.

If we wish to be heard – to share our views and represent our principles – we need to work with others in a way that makes this possible.  Communication will not be easy until we are ready to work shoulder-to-shoulder, to meet the needs we have in common and make things right.

No, this will not be easy. Many of us have serious differences. But addressing shared problems is the way mutual respect begins and interest in listening becomes genuine.

We will talk more about this later, but the important thing to recognize is that when the going gets tough, relationships count.  I don’t just mean with our next-door neighbors, as important as they are.  If we find ourselves under threat, directly or indirectly, the last thing we need is neighbors down the road or over the hill who are an unknown quantity.

And, we are not simply talking about making acquaintances here.  This is not about borrowing a cup of sugar over the back fence.  To make our communities safe and to rebuild the nation we need dependability. And that means trust.

Yes, well, in the midst of this crisis we find that trust is not something that Americans know much about.  Mostly we do not believe in it any more.  This is a big problem.

We cannot simply start trusting people because we wish for it.  The reality we live in is decidedly untrustworthy.  Most of the people around us do not have a clear concept of what trust means, much less an understanding of why it is important or what to do about it.

Change will take time.  The effort begins with the courage to be patient and accept differences. Let us not deny ourselves the maturity of forbearance and kindliness.

If we wish to be heard it is usually necessary to first convince others that we are actually hearing them.  Only then will we be heard.  In his book, “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People“, Stephen Covey wrote:

“If you’re like most people, you probably seek first to be understood; you want to get your point across.  And in doing so, you may ignore the other person completely, pretend that you’re listening, selectively hear only certain parts of the conversation or attentively focus on only the words being said, but miss the meaning entirely.  So why does this happen? Because most people listen with the intent to reply, not to understand.”

Building dependable relationships with our neighbors requires grit and determination. We will win a few and lose a few, but the ones we win will move the nation forward – and might save lives.

The loss of trust has accompanied the loss of civil order and security in this country.  Solutions to these most serious and fundamental problems begin on the path back to trust.

Trustworthiness is the foundation of security.  Without trust America faces existential danger.  And, without forbearance and cooperation no trust – or progress – will be possible.

Tom

Please look for the next post on or about August 12: Finding our balance in the storm.

To See for Ourselves

We each have the ability to see and interpret things for ourselves.  Yet, all too often we allow other people (and their agendas) to influence our own best judgment.  Naturally, we are attracted to views that support our preconceived assumptions, but can we really depend on others for the truth?

The dishonesty and deceit of partisan politics runs rampant.  Mass media is particularly insidious, creating a variety of alternative realities and imposing them on us in an incoherent stream of sound bites and disconnected images.

Social media is worse.  When our friends post an opinionated viewpoint on Facebook, does that make it true?  Can we determine our own independence and objectivity?

How can we test the accuracy of cherished perceptions?  What means do we have for seeking truth in the midst of upheaval?

We can never fully comprehend the reality in which we live, physically or spiritually.  But, hidden behind every disruption (and illusion) there is a stability we can depend on.  The world survives repeated cataclysms, always recovering its balance and somehow progressing despite human delusions, duplicity, and chicanery.

In the previous post I proposed a way to keep our balance.  I wrote of a dependable, self-sustaining foundation underlying the whole of reality, both material and spiritual, which has the character of justice.

We would do well to align ourselves with this standard, to unite with its’ principles and meet its’ conditions as best we can.

Religious people may recognize this truth as a manifestation of God’s Grace.  Others might see it as a function of the integrity of the natural order in the universe.  I believe both are true.

A balanced and coherent unity can be recognized in both the human and natural worlds, when they are freed from manipulation.

The elegant balance found in nature will, if left alone, always manage itself with a highly sensitive, yet robust and resilient functionality.

Human society has a similarly purposeful balance.  But, this is often distorted by insistent efforts to control things according to our selfish desires, rather than with any sense of the right order of things.

Religion has taught us of the interdependence and integrity of the relationships that form the fabric of human communities.  Science has shown us that the earth’s biosphere is a delicate web of life arranged in an integrated network of networks.

Whether in human affairs or in the natural world, any disruption or harm inflicted upon the balance will incur consequences that may not be immediately apparent.  Yet the repercussions of injury and injustice spread rapidly abroad, as each impact leads to others in widening circles that extend themselves in perpetuity.

Why is this important to our understanding of freedom?  Understanding the fundamental form and function of things allows us to see things for ourselves without undue influence from others.

While dialog and consultation can be important safeguards, the ability to recognize the consequences of events for ourselves, “to see the end in the beginning,” allows us to determine our own course of action freely, independently.

And, recognizing the far-flung after-effects of our own deeds provides us with a degree of protection from engaging in overly emotional, ill-conceived, or destructive acts.

A cursory review of human history reveals numerous examples of poorly conceived actions leading to disastrous consequences.  As we have all seen, both individuals and groups are quite capable of serious error.

How does this happen?  Well, sometimes we think we have everything figured out when, in fact, our information is limited and we are only aware of parts of the truth.

It is important to look for diversity of experience and perspective when we consult with others.  Only then can we step back to think critically for ourselves.

Always mindful of the foundation of justice, which is a given, (and rechecking our own motives periodically), will pay ever greater dividends in constructive outcomes and the avoidance of unnecessary trouble.

The framework of justice is a gift that will not go away.

However destructive unjust acts may be, the foundations of reality remain trustworthy, unperturbed and uncompromised – even in the darkest night.

Tom

Please watch for the next post on or about July 14.

New readers please note that posts adapted from the forthcoming book will usually appear on Fridays at both the main blog site and the Facebook page.  To receive emailed alerts, click “Follow” on this page.

Liberty and Justice: Beginning or End?

Neither liberty or justice can be pulled out of the air or handed to us by those in authority.  These are aspects of the elemental substance of reality and they depend on our actions.

It is through personal responsibility that we find the personal freedom to act on the principles of justice.  There can be no liberty without responsibility.

As we saw in the previous blog, personal liberty can be asserted even in the most terrible circumstances.  In a troubled world this is important to understand.  If we are to keep our balance when the ground is shifting under our feet, how can we best prepare ourselves?

We must do more than prepare materially for hard times, although that is important, too.

How can we find the moral and mental strength to persevere?  How can we take a long view in the midst of chaos – to gain a sense of ultimate purpose and a vision of the future we can believe in?

If we seek an even temper and a steady hand when the world around us is coming unhinged, I believe it will be with a firm understanding of the ground on which we stand.  And, I believe the ground of human reality is defined and governed by justice,

I know it is difficult to see justice in the midst of the present disarray.  So, let’s think for a moment about the world we were given, the real world – before we messed it up.

It is my firm conviction that there is an integral order underlying all things, and it has the character of justice.  This is the ultimate ground of the reality of things.

Stated briefly, justice can be understood as the ultimate balance manifested in the self-sustaining structure of things.  Or, to put it in another way, justice is a dynamic framework upon which all things depend, and which remains unified and transcendent despite the disruptions caused by human activity.

We can learn to see this “original” reality with our own eyes (and not through the eyes of others), and to understand it for ourselves without being swayed by others.

Justice is the governing principle and inherent character of this truth.  In my view, there is a reason to believe that this character is indestructible and will prevail in the end.  And, it is what allows us to keep our balance in a disturbed world.

Whether this idea is viewed through religious or philosophical eyes, all of us can benefit by gaining confidence in the ground we stand on.  It is reasonable, it is dependable, and it offers a stable basis for constructive action.

Everyone sees things differently and none of us can comprehend ultimate truth.  Yet, the concept proposed here can be helpful in maintaining our composure, and in determining the right course of action in difficult circumstances.

Such an understanding can be the starting point for both thinking and action.

If we are to rebuild our communities and nation in a constructive and principled manner, it will be necessary to adjust with flexibility to the unexpected changes that come with crises.

America is staggering under the assaults of discord, divisiveness, and hostility.  If this nation is worth saving, it is up to each of us as individuals – to reach out to those who are struggling with hardship, to rise above our differences and to unite with our neighbors to address our shared needs constructively.

Justice will come when we forge an indestructible unity with true American generosity of spirit.  There will always be differences.  It will be shared needs and common purpose that matter.

If we cannot win over a few with the invitation to selfless responsibility and mutual respect, leave them to themselves.  Some will insist on learning the hard way.  Join with those who are ready and get on with the work!

Understanding the ground of justice gives us confidence when exercising responsibility, building trustworthy relationships, and conducting our lives with integrity.

Justice furnishes the ordered condition in which we have the opportunity to bring ourselves into balance with the world of existence as it truly is – and as I believe it is meant to be.

Tom

Dear readers, I depend on your comments and constructive feedback.  Please look for the next post on or about June 30.