Americans experienced a major financial crisis in 2007-8. Some would argue that it began far earlier, and clearly it is ongoing today. We may be more aware of this crisis than others because it confronts us daily. In preparing for what is to come, we would do well to listen to those who saw it coming and who continue to warn of its’ inevitable consequences.
Beyond all the foolishness and greed running rampant in the financial world, one great threat hangs over our future more than any other: The greatest expansion of debt the world has ever seen. This is in large part due to non-stop deficit spending by governments. Corporate borrowing has recently exploded similarly.
However, we need to understand that this has been made possible by a credit-based monetary system. Easy access to credit, which is money created out of thin air, has led to the belief that credit is wealth. This fantasy has infected society from top to bottom.
When a credit-based monetary system functions the way central bankers wish, the money supply should expand only slightly faster than economic growth. Enough additional money must be created to cover the growing cost of servicing the expanding debt.
But, since 2008 the central bank (which we call the Federal Reserve) has expanded the monetary base almost four-fold while the economy has grown very little.
They call this “money”, but it is mostly debt.
The arrangement is extremely profitable for banks and the wealthy elite. It allows for all kinds of mischievousness. And, it depends on inflation, which is a long-term problem for the rest of us. If it sounds to you like a Ponzi scheme, you are not alone.
In managing the money supply to avoid the growing threat of another banking crisis, the Federal Reserve has facilitated repetitive cycles of booms and busts, each more severe than the last. This has perpetuated major social and economic distortions and dislocations. It has stifled any possibility of restoring normalcy to the lives of ordinary Americans.
The economy has not been permitted to return to a normal and balanced condition. Nothing has been fixed. Extremely low interest rates have encouraged rapid growth of corporate and government debt, so the situation has been steadily worsening.
At such extreme levels, there are only two paths forward: default or devaluation.
Debt must default and be liquidated before economic productivity can recover. But, the immediate pain of bankruptcy is too great for the bankers and policy-makers to bear. Consequently, they are struggling to gradually devalue the currency in relation to the cost of goods and services.
The government hopes desperately to meet the nominal cost of Social Security, Medicare, and other long-term budgetary obligations without defaulting. This means the value of the dollar must fall significantly.
By altering the method of measuring price inflation, rising prices have been masked and social security payments held to a minimum. Only those who live in the real world know the truth.
The devaluation of currencies is taking place around the world as budget deficits grow. Central banks attempt to minimize the interest costs of huge debt loads, while at the same time trying to avoid the failure of banking institutions that depend on interest rates.
Monetary economist and former banker, James Rickards, has written that “financial crises have supplanted kinetic warfare at the center of complex system dynamics. Financial crises in 1998 and 2008… are warnings – tremors ahead of a misfortune beyond imagining.” (“The Road to Ruin”, 2016, p.204)
The consequences of all this are profound and unpredictable. We face a deepening crisis that will exaggerate all others, severely limiting the capacity of businesses to grow and create jobs, undermining our standard of living, and making it impossible to address pressing needs without worsening monetary instability.
The dependability of a productive, self-sustaining economy has been sacrificed to the tyranny of selfish interests.
Strangely, however, the wealthy elite have behaved like parasites that destroy their host. They have wrecked the healthy economy upon which their profits depend. And they have exposed themselves, as well as the rest of us, to the evaporating value of credit-based money.
Please look for the next post on or about October 6. We will take a look at the problem of complexity, and the realities of financial markets and other systems that have vastly exceeded the human capacity to fully understand or control.