Tag Archives: #economics

Coin, credit and circulation

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Coast 3

“A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.”
–Mark Twain

“All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from the downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation [money].”
–John Adams

“The time to save is now. When a dog gets a bone, he doesn’t go out and make a down payment on a bigger bone. He buries the one he’s got.”
–Will Rogers

American Crisis – 2

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Jefferson Memorial 1

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.”

–Thomas Jefferson

Why the Bankers Are Trapped

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Few seem to grasp that we have arrived at a turning point; a nation and a world confronted with extraordinary structural change.

To think of the future in terms of recovering the past will not be helpful. We must pick ourselves up, hit the reset button, and move forward in a manner that is congruent with a rapidly changing reality.

I am not a banker or economist. I cannot speak with authority regarding the fragile conditions to which we are exposed. But neither am I trapped in past assumptions or blinkered by custom. My intent here is to monitor a transition I think we should all try to understand.

There are many aspects to the changes we are experiencing, some with immediate implications, others longer-term.

However, I think it useful to begin with a particular question with critical immediacy: “Why is the Federal Reserve unable to return the economy to some semblance of order?” Or, to put it another way: “Why has nothing actually been fixed since 2008?”

Here we find a powerful illustration of what is meant by structural change.

The short answer to these questions is that they want to believe they are dealing with a cyclical crisis rather than a structural crisis.

Again, why? Because the truth represents an unbearable existential threat.

Structural change has shifted the economy into a long-term deflationary trend, which presents financial institutions and governments with an impossible situation.

I refer you here to James Rickards’ recent best-seller, “The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System”. A monetary economist and former banker, Rickards is an adviser to the Pentagon and CIA.

Using simple math, Rickards’ explains how “in effect, the impact of declining prices [deflation] more than offsets declining nominal growth [GDP] and therefore produces real growth.”

Most of us would think this is a good thing.

He writes: “Despite possible real growth, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve fear deflation more than any other economic outcome. Deflation means a persistent decline in price levels for goods and services. Lower prices allow for a higher living standard even when wages are constant, because consumer goods cost less. This would seem to be a desirable outcome, based on advances in technology and productivity that result in certain products dropping in price over time….”

Why is the Federal Reserve so fearful of deflation that it resorts to extreme measures to oppose it? Rickards gives us four reasons.

First, deflation has a severe impact on government debt. “U.S. debt is at a point where no feasible combination of real growth and taxes will finance repayment…. But if the Fed can cause inflation…, the debt will be manageable because it will be repaid in less valuable nominal dollars. In deflation, the opposite occurs, and the real value of the debt increases….”

Second, deflation impacts the debt-to-GDP ratio, causing foreign creditors to lose confidence and demand higher interest rates. This is an urgent problem because the debt is continually increasing. Budget deficits require new financing, and interest payments are being financed with new debt.

Third, deflation is a major problem for banks. As Rickards’ puts it, “deflation increases money’s real value and therefore increases the real value of lenders’ claims on debtors…. But as deflation progresses, the real weight of the debt becomes too great, and debtor defaults surge.”

The fourth problem with deflation is about taxes. When a worker receives a raise, the additional income is subject to taxes. But, if the cost of living drops by the same amount, the worker in effect receives the same raise and the government cannot tax it.

“In summary,” writes Rickards, “the Federal Reserve prefers inflation because it erases government debt, reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio, props up banks, and can be taxed.”

“Deflation may help consumers and workers,” he says, “but it hurts the Treasury and the banks…. The consequence of these deflationary dynamics is that the government must have inflation, and the Fed must cause it. The dynamics amount to a historic collision between the natural forces of deflation and the government’s need for inflation.”

Such are the difficulties and dilemmas of structural change.

Tom

Next week: Insolvency and the Devaluation of the Dollar.

Note to readers: You can support this blog and the book project by suggesting that your friends and associates take a look.

American Crisis – 1

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Desert 2

“It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes.”

–Thomas Jefferson

“Alexander Hamilton started the U.S. Treasury with nothing, and that was the closest our country has ever been to being even.”

–Will Rogers

“If a person gets his attitude toward money straight, it will help straighten out almost every other area in his life.”

–Billy Graham

A Deepening Crisis

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There is trouble in the land. Things are not right and the signs confront us daily. The mainstream media focuses on politics and the economy, but we know it goes far deeper.

The illness is shows itself in violence and bitterness, in material deprivations, in the degradation of human dignity and loss of responsibility. Many of us share a sinking feeling. We are afraid of the future, and increasingly we fear one another.

A wide range of crises are emerging into view or loom on the horizon.

I have surveyed some of these threats in Chapter Two of the book project, “A Confluence of Crises,” where I note that many are interrelated. And, I have argued that Americans must pull together despite our differences, both for self-preservation and to ensure the survival of the American republic.

The broad theme running through this blog (and forthcoming book) is the necessity for Americans to work together shoulder-to-shoulder to meet local needs and resolve local problems. As difficult as this prospect may seem, I do not believe we have a choice.

However, my purpose here is not to warn of impending crises, but to prepare us to remain positive in mind and spirit – to get us through a dark and chaotic time, and out the other side.

We face a long crisis. A constructive response needs to be mounted even as we withstand hardships and disasters.

We are challenged as Americans to rebuild the foundations of the nation in preparation for a future we can respect and believe in. This will require courage and steady determination. Even when we cannot see our way clearly, we must keep our focus on the ends we seek.

In the coming weeks I will offer a broad overview of issues that I think should be taken into consideration as we think about a future beyond this upheaval. We will need to have a realistic understanding of circumstances if we are to progress intelligently, rationally, avoiding wrong turns and hidden dangers.

The most important consideration in all this, in my view, is recognition of the structural nature of the transition. We have arrived at an historic turning point, both as Americans and as human beings. We are experiencing massive structural change.

Structural change takes place outside the realm of our normal experience and expectations. It is caused by events beyond our control.

Examples would include an aging population with insufficient savings, bankrupt governments and institutions, the unprecedented complexity of economic distortions and disruptions, the uncontrolled advance of extraordinary technologies, and the threat of terrorism – all developments that have little to do with partisan politics.

That mistakes have been made and illusions foolishly pursued is undeniable. But, very big changes are taking place that are actually not anyone’s fault.

I have focused attention on values and principles in recent blog posts because, as a practical matter, we are entering new territory. We can only navigate safely with principles that are valid and dependable.

To think of the future in terms of recovering the past will not be helpful. We must pick ourselves up, hit the reset button, and move forward in a manner that is congruent with a rapidly changing reality.

You see, there is a reason the bankers and their economists are not succeeding at returning the economic condition of the United States to some semblance of order. They have proceeded as though they are dealing with a cyclical crisis rather than a structural crisis. And, as long as they continue to do so, there will be no recovery.

Why don’t they understand this? Well, some of them do. But, few dare to speak openly because the financial world would panic.

Why do they continue with a strategy that cannot possibly succeed? Well, there is a reason for that, too. Central bankers (and governments) are trapped between a rock and a hard place.

In the coming weeks we will address the ways a rapidly changing world is changing our lives. We must move past our emotions even as the world is driven over a cliff – because our grandchildren deserve a rational inheritance. And that depends on us.

Tom

Next week: Why the bankers are trapped.

Note to readers: You can support this blog and the book project by recommending that your friends and associates take a look.