The Deeper Crisis

We live in extraordinary times. Having entered a period of successive and interacting crises, we are challenged to pull together as a people, to clarify our purposes for safeguarding the integrity of our nation as a democratic republic, and to determine effective means for doing so.

I have commented here that we face a range of diverse crises, all emerging into view at virtually the same time. We have reviewed a number of them very briefly on this blog, and several at greater depth.

Some, like the continuing financial crisis, have impending implications. Others, like the unrecognized instability of complexity in today’s digitized world, remain hidden, but may well provide the trigger that sends things into freefall.

(See blog posts: February 6, “Why the Bankers are Trapped”; February 13, “Insolvency and Devaluation”; February 20, “A New Kind of Crisis”; and March 13, “The Hidden Dangers of Complexity.”)

I have placed emphasis on the coming financial storm because it hangs over us now, waiting for a trigger.

The too-big-to-fail banks are now bigger than they were before they helped bring down the economy in 2008. The federal debt has risen by 83% since that time. We see an increase of low-paying service sector jobs while our economy continues to lose higher-paying jobs.

The stock market has shot upward with no foundation in economic reality, and has now reached irrational valuations not seen since just before the 1929 panic and the dotcom crash of 2000.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which is the central banker to the world’s central banks, announced recently that central bankers will be out of options when the next crisis hits.

Essentially confirming my points in the February blog posts referenced above, the BIS suggests that the major central banks have mismanaged the situation to a large extent because they don’t understand it. Previously “unthinkable risks,” they said, are coming to be “perceived as the new normal.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also released a report recently, stating that “key fault lines” are growing across the US financial landscape, and that “new pockets of vulnerabilities have emerged.” The largest and most interconnected banks, the IMF concludes, “dominate the system even more than before.”

As imposing as this unfolding drama appears, in my view there is a more fundamental crisis. And, it is clearly visible behind all the others.

I have written here, (as recently as June 26), of the stunning loss of personal integrity – honesty, trustworthiness, responsibility – we have witnessed in recent years. A profound collapse of moral standards has taken place on a broad, societal scale.

This is the deeper crisis, and it may ultimately be responsible for the general deterioration that is dragging civilization to its knees. I say this because trust and responsibility are the basis for the sound functioning of human affairs, and lack of them has led to crippling disorientation and disorder.

Why has this happened to such a broad extent? Certainly we have lost the ethical and intellectual foundations that have contributed to stability in the past. But, why? We are intelligent people. What happened to good judgment? Where is common sense?

Have we walked away from responsibility believing that honesty and fairness limit our freedom? Has the daily bludgeoning of mass media warped our minds and stunted our capacity to think for ourselves?

Whatever the reasons, we are now reaping the whirlwind. For a world where many young people have grown up with little effective parenting, and many of their elders have lost any meaningful grounding in values or virtues, there will be no guidance available in the chaotic upheavals that lie ahead.

Analyzing and explaining the prospective dangers we face is beyond the scope of this blog and book. Rather, I seek to gather Americans around a constructive response that is rooted in our local communities, irrespective of unpredictable events.

Tests that require us to pull ourselves together and rise to our full potential might actually be the only antidote to the toxic cocktail of partisan negativity that is poisoning the American soul.

Stability requires and integrity demands a rational and compassionate response to the downward spiral of social and economic deterioration.

Tom

Next week: Responsibility, personal and practical

The power which knowledge gives…

Music 1

“Knowledge will forever govern ignorance; and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives.”

–James Madison

“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.”

–Thomas Jefferson

A Confluence of Crises

The United States and the world have arrived at an historic turning point. We face a formidable array of complex crises. The challenges are diverse, profound, and mutually reinforcing. Some will impose themselves suddenly, others gradually, but all will ultimately converge as they impact our lives during the coming years.

Most Americans are aware today of certain dangers and other highly politicized concerns, which appear against the backdrop of deteriorating economic conditions and growing civil disorder. I do not question the importance of these issues. Rather, I draw your attention to additional significant, but perhaps less obvious threats that we should all be aware of.

I have posted a list of many of the dangers and dilemmas we face, (see June 26 blog: “Crisis and Opportunity”), which are emerging into view at virtually the same time: social and economic, moral and material. Some are specific to the United States, but most involve global socio-economic, financial, geopolitical, and environmental systems, which are essentially ungovernable and beyond our control.

Perhaps some might once have been governable – in theory. But, it is too late now.

Many are material in nature. One sobering example is the vulnerability of structural systems in the United States to cyber-attack or, in certain cases, power failure.

Such a crisis could easily cut off all telecommunications, broadcast media, the internet, air-traffic control, emergency services and hospital functions – without warning. It could disrupt distribution systems, leaving supermarket shelves bare. Damage to the national grid could be so severe that it would take days or weeks to repair.

In this confluence of crises, the fabric of civil society and economic order will be challenged. Systems and structures could come unraveled in a self-perpetuating chain of events.

The interrelated complexity of the world is the function of what is known as a “whole system”. We are experiencing a multi-dimensional crisis of the whole, possibly leading to a cascading collapse.

Our response must, of necessity, be rational, principled. Our salvation will be in our comprehension of the ultimate integrity of the whole, a reality both physical and spiritual. And here is the crux of the matter. Behind the material problems is a silent, central and transcendent crisis that is of ultimate significance.

This is a crisis of a different kind, and it will determine the eventual outcome.

I speak here of the loss of moral compass, the absence of ethical and spiritual grounding that precludes personal responsibility and accountability, and an abdication of reason that threatens the very foundations of civil order.

This is the most profound crisis – and the most dangerous — because it represents a subversion of the integral order of human culture and civilization.

Whatever our particular religious tradition or philosophical grounding, the difficult years ahead will demand a steadfast commitment to the highest ethical standards, to consistent moral responsibility and a compassionate readiness to cooperate with others.

Our ability to engage constructively with our neighbors will be essential. While there is much we will not agree on, we must learn to work together, to listen respectfully, and to translate our differences into language that can be understood and respected by everyone.
We will be dependent on our local communities to be safe and trustworthy.

A few days ago I posted an important quotation from John Adams. Scroll down and take a look at it. This is the bridge that must be crossed. When things get bad enough, this will happen again.

A quiet but courageous and visionary leadership will be called upon to facilitate this transit – to gather Americans together, to learn what needs to be learned, to meet local needs and resolve local problems.

We face a dangerous passage through a chaotic transition. Many will turn to violent rhetoric and extremist philosophies out of failure to recognize the integral order.

An American leadership that is true to its roots will stand firmly against such mental weakening, because the violence of sedition, whether it comes from above or below, will threaten the loss of everything this nation has meant to the American people.

The quiet American leadership I speak of is you, dear reader. We have no one to depend on but ourselves. If we prepare ourselves mentally and morally, the rest can be sorted out.

Tom

Next week: New dangers, intelligent responses

The Real American Revolution

City 7 SF

“The Revolution was effected before the War commenced. The Revolution was in the minds and hearts of the people; a change in their religious sentiments of their duties and obligations. This radical change in the principles, opinions, sentiments, and affections of the people, was the real American Revolution.”

–John Adams (Second president of the United States)

American Crucible

The extraordinary challenges confronting the American people mark an unequivocal turning point and, indeed, impose an unambiguous test of America’s place in history.

For more than two hundred years the United States has stood before the world as a beacon of hope, a source of creative vibrancy, imagination and ingenuity, and as a singular model of political freedom, social diversity, and economic vitality.

In the crush of crisis it is easy to forget the historic stature of the United States, and the role it has played and will continue to play in the progress of an ever-advancing civilization.

Yet, our confidence in the future is shaken by abandoned responsibility and collapsing institutions. Our economic well-being and social coherence as a nation have been weakened, and the generosity of spirit for which we have long been known appears dimmed.

In observance of Independence Day, and in honor of the many new readers who have joined the blog in recent weeks, I am stepping away from the current topic to revisit the central theme of the forthcoming book.

Blog posts usually appear each Friday, both here and on the Facebook page. You will find a proposed table of contents here, an introduction to the book, and full drafts of several chapters. This post is adapted from Chapter One, “American Crucible.”

Do we possess the vision and resolve to join one another in rebuilding the foundations of the United States based on its’ core values and ultimate meaning? Are we prepared to rise above our differences for the sake of “the American idea?”

I believe this is a time to consider our identity as a people.

My message is brief. It will be short on analytical detail and will avoid blame. There is more than enough blame to go around and we all know about it. Rather, it will focus on the essentials of mind and attitude, of moral character, and of our relationships with one another that will be required to turn things around – to turn despair into courage and failure into honor and self-respect.

The book will acknowledge some of the basic errors of the past that must be avoided if we are to forge a realistic course into the future. We will briefly consider the manner in which Americans have given up control of our lives and made ourselves vulnerable to the present circumstances.

However, we will do so not to fix blame, but for the purpose of understanding the steps to securing a free and stable future.

We all yearn for a less partisan and more civil national discourse. Let us accept that diverse views are needed, however divergent they may be, if we are to correctly identify effective solutions. Practical problem-solving best occurs with input from varied perspectives. And, I must point out that in the present dangerously fragile context, priority must go to ensuring the safety and well-being of our families and communities. This will depend on loyalty, cooperation, and teamwork – despite our differences.

There can be no freedom without trust. And, we cannot begin to address the larger issues in our future without first securing stable local forums in which to engage with civility.

Is this really possible? Yes, but only with great patience and a capacity to envision the end in the beginning.

The United States has gained its vitality from our diversity and the creative engagement found in the clash of differing opinions. Our differences must never be permitted to subvert the unity of purpose that secures the identity of the nation. This immense energy can only be productive if disciplined by civil discourse, steadfast commitment, and a shared vision.

At a time of extraordinary existential threat we are confronted with a stark choice.

Will we return to the founding principles of these United States as the foundation for building a free, ethical, and prosperous future? Will we defend and protect two hundred years of commitment, hard work, and sacrifice by generations of Americans who have given their lives to this unprecedented vision?

Or, will we give way to the emotions of uncompromising partisanship – and allow a great trust to disintegrate?

Tom

Next week: A Confluence of Crises

Crisis and Opportunity

I am addressing these words to Americans for two reasons. I believe we have entered a period of severe, successive and interacting crises that promises to be deep, grinding, and long-lasting.

Secondly, I am concerned about the potential consequences of the increasingly bitter antagonism and disunity current among the American people.

Many of you are aware that the present predicament has been developing gradually over time. We have seen the loss of a once vibrant civil society, deterioration of the nation’s economic base, and a profound loss of social coherence and moral responsibility.

We each have a personal decision to make. Do we wish to recover the integrity of the United States as a constitutional republic? Are we prepared to rise above our differences, to engage personally with our neighbors, to instill the American spirit in safe, dependable communities?

These are among the questions that have inspired the forthcoming book. Our circumstances are already extreme. Nothing will be easy.

The United States and the world have arrived at an unprecedented turning point. We face a formidable array of complex crises. The challenges are diverse, profound, and mutually reinforcing. Some will impose themselves suddenly, others gradually, but all will ultimately converge as they impact upon our lives.

What is most extraordinary is the number and variety of crises that are emerging into view at virtually the same time: social and economic, moral and material.

An abbreviated review is offered here to demonstrate this diversity.

1) Increasing social instability characterized by a dramatic loss of civility, and by unrestrained anti-social behaviors that include accelerating incidences of brutality and mass murder.

2) A banking and monetary system that favors the financial elite rather than the American people, and which has become dominated by self-serving individuals who appear incapable of recognizing that their risk-taking behavior threatens the well-being of everyone, including themselves.

3) Massive government indebtedness, which constricts the economy and threatens Americans (and many others) with a dramatic devaluation of our dollar.

4) Ancient and deteriorating infrastructure that we depend on every day: bridges, municipal water and sewage systems, and the electrical grid. These will be almost impossible to upgrade or replace by governments already hobbled by indebtedness and shrinking revenues.

5) An exponentially increasing global population. With this comes rapidly increasing risk of global epidemics, as well as inevitable food shortages caused by falling water tables and a continual loss of arable farmland.

6) The rapid development of advanced technologies without a commensurate advancement of moral maturity or conscious sense of responsibility.

7) Degradation of the natural environmental systems that provide us with clean air and water, the consequence of population pressures and the long-term aggregate build-up of toxic substances derived from motor vehicles, household products, and industrial pollution.

8) A failure of parenting, and the emergence of a generation of youth untethered from reality and having little sense of moral, personal, or social responsibility.

9) Last, but not least, a profound loss of moral compass, balance, and integrity on a societal scale. This dramatic deterioration is overwhelming the values and norms of the past, and it is a crisis that impacts on all others.

There is more.

During the past century we have seen the emergence of integrated and digitized global systems that include transport, communication, and surveillance technologies, and a unified global monetary system. Consequently, no crisis can take place in any context without impacting on the whole.

A profound structural transition is taking place in human affairs that many have yet to recognize or understand.

How can such dire circumstances be called an opportunity?

For Americans the opportunity lies in the disruption of our lives – a disruption so profound that it cannot fail to alter our perspective, our thinking, and our willingness to cooperate with one another for the sake of local safety and security – whatever our politics or religion or the color of our skin.

And, if we can build viable local communities we can also begin the dialog to identify the practical extent of our shared values, and to develop a sense of shared vision and purpose that we can respect.

We must resist being dragged down, demoralized. We cannot react out of fear. We will stand firmly together, rising to the promise of our humanity with honor, dignity, and resourcefulness.

The identity of the nation is at stake.

Tom

Next week: A Confluence of Crises

Where the Work Begins

Living or working with other people might be the most difficult thing we ever do. Even a marriage can be hard work. And yet, if we wish to lead a meaningful life – or choose to rebuild the foundations of the American Republic – this is our core mission.

A spirited civil society is a central part of our American heritage. More than that, without dependable neighbors there can be no real safety or security. And, without trust nothing is dependable. These are prizes to be fought for and gained through consistent and determined effort.

Where do we start? How shall we navigate the inevitable bumps and bruises of working relationships?

When we become acquainted with someone who is emotionally mature and relatively open-minded it may not be hard to develop an understanding. If, however, we need to work with someone who suffers from anxiety or has wounds from the past, (or is convinced they already know everything), then building a constructive relationship will take time and labor.

This is almost always possible, if we have the patience and courage to persist, and if our circumstances allow us to proceed safely.

There are two basic requirements. The first is to get our thinking straight, to have a positive attitude and reasonable, clearly formed intentions. The second is to gain certain practical interpersonal skills. Both will be addressed in the book.

In any potentially sensitive interpersonal relationship it is wise to look beyond superficial impressions to recognize the free personhood and integrity of the other individual. New acquaintances may not seem attractive at first, or might seem more attractive than they deserve.

Each of us is a complex mystery. We can only come to genuinely know one another if we have the generosity of spirit to inquire and take interest. This can be a rich and meaningful experience.

Stephen Covey has written that “every human has four endowments – self awareness, conscience, independent will and creative imagination. These give us the ultimate human freedom…, the power to choose, to respond, to change.”

If we seek to build trust, and if we believe in freedom, all of these endowments must be recognized. Many of us are unaware of our own endowments, our own potential to grow and mature. And the surest way to learn and grow is in the effort to build functional relationships.

Many people will not share our vision or sense of purpose. They may not understand what we are inviting them to do, and may be distrustful until we prove ourselves. So, we need to communicate clearly, making sure we are understood, and find ways to work together. Such things take time and thoughtfulness.

We cannot wait for others to take the lead. The initiative must be ours. This is how we test our skills and put rubber to the road.

Elbert Hubbard said, “Responsibility is the price of freedom.” And Gandhi said, “You must be the change you want to see in the world.

Understanding comes through relationship, and the best way to build strong relationships is to team up to meet community needs. While spending relaxed time offers the possibility for meaningful conversation, it is in working together to address felt-needs and resolve practical problems that we really come to know one another.

Now, suppose we need to join forces with people who are very different from us. Perhaps our politics are at odds, or someone has religious or philosophical views that we find strange, or we simply see reality very differently. How can we get along – and actually trust another in difficult or dangerous circumstances? We will touch on this briefly next week.

Again, I believe the bottom line is this: In every matter our concern must be to preserve and deepen the level of trust, because we can expect to remain under the pressures of disrupted lives, deteriorating social conditions, and the threat of violence for a long time.

We can do this. We are a resourceful people. And we will get better at it as we make the effort.

Tom

Next week: Living With Differences

Anyone who fights for the future…

Mountain 5 SanJuan

“Anyone who fights for the future, lives in it today.”

–Ayn Rand

The Power of Teamwork

As we make our way forward through this long crisis, we can expect an erratic path to the future. The sequence of events will be unpredictable. Progress toward our ultimate goal will be diverted and delayed by repeated shocks and disruptions.

We must shore up our spirits and brace ourselves for frustrations. Sharing vision and purpose with others will steady our course – and our nerves.

Community spirit, and the success of communities in determining shared purpose and strategies for coping, will be critically important. This can only happen when we rise above our differences and come to understand and trust one another as friends, neighbors, and allies.

Readers are quite right to question how I can expect the intense antipathy and incivility current among the American people to allow us to actually sit down and attempt to understand and cooperate with one another.

You may think the idea impossible, even absurd. But, as I have tried to explain, we have no choice. Our failure to do this in good faith could result in the absolute loss of the American Republic and everything it stands for.

I think it interesting that our young people can commit themselves to discipline, teamwork, and decisive action in the armed forces – while the rest of us appear unwilling to exercise even basic civility, much less the generosity and loyalty that have characterized the American tradition.

It is not necessary to compromise our personal views and beliefs. The challenge is to be both self-confident and respectful as we engage with others to resolve local problems. This may require that we adjust our attitudes. Can we come to terms with one another as teammates and compatriots committed to the fundamental integrity of the nation?

No cohesive effort can be mounted, much less succeed, if we cannot get ourselves onto the same page. This is not possible if we cannot listen with understanding and communicate with civility.

The way we handle working relationships and resolve local problems will be the first stage in preparing for the future. A right attitude for dealing with an immediate crisis, as I suggested in an earlier post, will probably be the right attitude for working with one another to build a better future.

There will be confusion at times, and a failure to fully comprehend the nature of problems. Many of us are demoralized or under immense pressure. Those who have the presence of mind to engage in problem-solving will need to step forward to engage and pull people together.

Working with people can be one of the greatest tests in life. To assist readers in approaching the challenges of working with people – including those who are especially difficult to work with – the forthcoming book will offer supportive guidelines for a variety of conditions and circumstances. These will include:

1) Overcoming personal differences to build trusting personal relationships.
2) Facilitation of public meetings.
3) Group decision-making where differences of perspective or opinion are present.
4) Addressing conflict by means of an approach known as conflict transformation.
5) Working in groups to plan and execute projects.

I expect you are wondering what I mean by “conflict transformation”, mentioned in #4. This is a practical approach to conflict developed by John Paul Lederach and others. His book is The Little Book of Conflict Transformation.

Conflict transformation looks beyond resolution of the obvious issues on the surface of a conflict, to recognize and respond to the deeper factors that simmer below the surface – the roots of a conflict. It seeks first to understand and address perceptions and underlying causes; second, to reduce adversarial confrontation; and, third, to address the human needs relating to the conflict and to invite participation in finding constructive solutions.

I will try to give you a brief taste of my own thinking on building trust in personal relationships next week. Related commentary may appear in future blog posts, but to gain access to a range of practical tools and guidance you may purchase the book when it becomes available.

Tom

Next week: Building strong working relationships

Note to readers: A table of contents and several chapter drafts from the forthcoming book are posted on the blog site. See especially Chapter One: American Crucible and Chapter Six: The Ground of Freedom.

The aristocracy of our monied corporations…

Lightning 1-x

“I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country.”

–Thomas Jefferson

“If you pick up a starving dog and make him prosperous, he will not bite you. This is the principal difference between a dog and a man.”

–Mark Twain

American Crisis – 2

Jefferson Memorial 1

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.”

–Thomas Jefferson

A Deepening Crisis

There is trouble in the land. Things are not right and the signs confront us daily. The mainstream media focuses on politics and the economy, but we know it goes far deeper.

The illness is shows itself in violence and bitterness, in material deprivations, in the degradation of human dignity and loss of responsibility. Many of us share a sinking feeling. We are afraid of the future, and increasingly we fear one another.

A wide range of crises are emerging into view or loom on the horizon.

I have surveyed some of these threats in Chapter Two of the book project, “A Confluence of Crises,” where I note that many are interrelated. And, I have argued that Americans must pull together despite our differences, both for self-preservation and to ensure the survival of the American republic.

The broad theme running through this blog (and forthcoming book) is the necessity for Americans to work together shoulder-to-shoulder to meet local needs and resolve local problems. As difficult as this prospect may seem, I do not believe we have a choice.

However, my purpose here is not to warn of impending crises, but to prepare us to remain positive in mind and spirit – to get us through a dark and chaotic time, and out the other side.

We face a long crisis. A constructive response needs to be mounted even as we withstand hardships and disasters.

We are challenged as Americans to rebuild the foundations of the nation in preparation for a future we can respect and believe in. This will require courage and steady determination. Even when we cannot see our way clearly, we must keep our focus on the ends we seek.

In the coming weeks I will offer a broad overview of issues that I think should be taken into consideration as we think about a future beyond this upheaval. We will need to have a realistic understanding of circumstances if we are to progress intelligently, rationally, avoiding wrong turns and hidden dangers.

The most important consideration in all this, in my view, is recognition of the structural nature of the transition. We have arrived at an historic turning point, both as Americans and as human beings. We are experiencing massive structural change.

Structural change takes place outside the realm of our normal experience and expectations. It is caused by events beyond our control.

Examples would include an aging population with insufficient savings, bankrupt governments and institutions, the unprecedented complexity of economic distortions and disruptions, the uncontrolled advance of extraordinary technologies, and the threat of terrorism – all developments that have little to do with partisan politics.

That mistakes have been made and illusions foolishly pursued is undeniable. But, very big changes are taking place that are actually not anyone’s fault.

I have focused attention on values and principles in recent blog posts because, as a practical matter, we are entering new territory. We can only navigate safely with principles that are valid and dependable.

To think of the future in terms of recovering the past will not be helpful. We must pick ourselves up, hit the reset button, and move forward in a manner that is congruent with a rapidly changing reality.

You see, there is a reason the bankers and their economists are not succeeding at returning the economic condition of the United States to some semblance of order. They have proceeded as though they are dealing with a cyclical crisis rather than a structural crisis. And, as long as they continue to do so, there will be no recovery.

Why don’t they understand this? Well, some of them do. But, few dare to speak openly because the financial world would panic.

Why do they continue with a strategy that cannot possibly succeed? Well, there is a reason for that, too. Central bankers (and governments) are trapped between a rock and a hard place.

In the coming weeks we will address the ways a rapidly changing world is changing our lives. We must move past our emotions even as the world is driven over a cliff – because our grandchildren deserve a rational inheritance. And that depends on us.

Tom

Next week: Why the bankers are trapped.

Note to readers: You can support this blog and the book project by recommending that your friends and associates take a look.